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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.